How Much? Well, How Much Ya Got?

First things first: they are the Red Sox, and they will spend money this winter.

But how much? In the span of roughly a week last winter, the Sox spent over $300 million on Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford ("Carl Christmas" was my Facebook status one day).

From Ben Cherington, we hear there will be changes. From Larry Lucchino, we hear there is still the core of a great team in Boston. As it happens, both men are right. There has been some scuttlebutt that Liverpool has been a drain on Red Sox resources, but I don't believe that. (In retrospect, though, one wonders if the dramatic signings last winter were meant in part to offset such talk.)

NESN ratings were down in 2010, dramatically. They were better in 2011, but I'm not sure how much better. (Here's my suggestion for that: expand the pool of advertisers. By about mid-April, I've had it with W.B. Mason.)

What would a master investor (like John Henry) say? The second-richest team in baseball needs to make changes, but has a lot of money on the table. There will be some Moneyball to play, no doubt. But do you really go after Sabathia? In the end, you'd just be making Brian Cashman's job harder -- no time for that kind of horseplay. Do you join the Wilson bidding war? Not with both feet, I don't think, but they might hang around to see what the price is.

In short, I don't think anyone gets a massive deal. I can picture a good right-handed bat signing for a year or two. Vlad Guerrero might be available. He's not the Vlad of old; more like the Vlad who got old. But he hit .290 with 13 homers last year, and he can still pop a few over the Monster. They could do worse.