The Loss of Bailey May Be Overplayed

I don't want to downplay the loss of Andrew Bailey, because like everyone else I had high hopes for him. But other observers, even the somewhat optimistic Jonah Keri, seem to be overplaying it.

This stems, I think, from our tendency to think of Mariano Rivera, or Jonathan Papelbon, or Eric Gagne when he was awesome, or even Rollie Fingers when we say "closer." Bailey has been very good, but nothing approaching the greats at their peaks of greatness, and he's had injuries. "Nobody could have predicted" (really) him missing more than half the season, but some absence was fairly predictable.

It's an unanswerable question, determining the difference, but Alfredo Aceves pitching well for the entire season doesn't appear to be that much of a dropoff.

The problem with predictions is that they're based on assumptions, and something throwing off an assumption early on has an exaggerated effect, as do early results. I'm laying off the panic button for now.

But, of course, keeping it handy. I am a Red Sox fan after all.