How Bad Is It?

Some simple math:
-- The Rex Sox have six games left, Tampa Bay has five.
-- The lead, as of now, is 2.5 games.

Therefore:
-- If the Sox go 3-3, Tampa has to go 5-0 to catch them.
-- If the Sox go 4-2, Tampa cannot catch up. The Sox would finish 92-70. Tampa's best possible finish is 91-71.

But:
-- If the Sox go 2-4, Tampa can tie them by going 4-1 or better.
-- If the Sox go 1-5 (we have to think about this), Tampa catches them with 3-2 or better.

To summarize:
-- .500 ball by the Sox means Tampa has to win all five games. It takes .667 ball (above the season average) to clinch.

How did it come to this?

Image from Cafe Press. It's nice, but I'd rather have a Muddy Chicken T-shirt.