Why the Red Sox offense will succeed in 2013

I’m going to ask Red Sox Nation to put aside the emotional aspect of the 2012 season for a moment. Yes it sucked for all of us (I’m including the players in that statement), but as we breakdown different aspects of the upcoming year we’ll focus solely on the statistical analysis. I can't handle the emotional torment from a year ago. Trust me when I say you’ll be pleasantly surprised by what you read. 


I get it Red Sox Nation. Last year may have hurt worse than Aaron Boone's game winning home run off Tim Wakefield in game 7 of the '03 ALCS. Wait, what am I talking about that was fricken terrible. Nonetheless the 2012 season was a bust in many ways but offensively. The Sox, by season's end, were top 10 in four major offensive categories including runs, hits, runs batted in (RBI) and batting average.

8th in Runs, 10th in Hits, 10th in RBI and 10th in Batting Average

In addition the Red Sox fell just short of the top 10 in both slugging (12th) and on base plus slugging (11th). These numbers were easily swept under home base because of the external (and internal) drama within the organization. In 2012 the Red Sox were a top 10 offense. So how will they look in 2013?

After the loss of four significant contributors in Cody Ross (left field), Mike Aviles (shortstop), Carl Crawford (left field) and Adrian Gonzalez (first base), the Sox signed four new pieces to the starting lineup including Mike Napoli (first base), Stephen Drew (shortstop), Jonny Gomes (left field) and Shane Victorino (right field). A question lingers heading into the 2013 season: Will Napoli, Drew, Gomes and Victorino be able to produce offensively?

Let's breakdown six important statistical categories between these eight players - runs, hits, home runs, RBI, batting average and on-base percentage. A cumulative total will be used for runs, hits, home runs and RBI. A cumulative average will be used for batting average and on-base percentage.

Group one will consist of Ross, Aviles, Crawford and Gonzalez. Group two will consist of Napoli, Drew, Gomes and Victorino. (Note: Red = 2012 advantage and  Black = 2013 advantage)

Batting Avg
Group 1*

Group 2*
                * 2012 individual player statistics were used to calculate totals & averages

After grinding through the numbers it's fairly conclusive, the new additions to the Red Sox will have some deficiencies and some strengths. The two numbers that standout, in the graph above, are runs and OBS. Those two numbers will be the key to the Red Sox having success in 2013. 

As my good friend John Madden would say, "They're gonna have to score more points to win the game." 

Follow Scott Levesque on Twitter at @scottlevesque.