The tipping point as of second series

Eric D. Schabell
Contributing Writer

There should have been four games played in the Rays series, but rain has pushed the last game out until just after the last Tipping Point series with the Orioles.

Keeping with the tradition here of revisiting predictions we check on the progress with respect to the original Tipping Point and follow up to the situation after the Yankees series.

The Red Sox and Rays closed out their 4 game series this week with a rain out. The Rays took 2 out of 3. This pulls them right back up to half a game out of first in the division.

This is not on track for the positive scenario I had hoped for where the standing would have had the Rays 6.5 games back right now. Instead they swept the Blue Jays and have taken 2 from the Red Sox, with David Price most likely to loom large on the mound Monday when they make up the rain delay.

It looks like the first series went the route of the positive scenario against the Yankees, but the second is leaning towards the route of the negative scenario with the Rays.

We won't know for sure until after the Monday night game.

The Orioles played a 4 game series against the Royals, losing 3 of 4 games which has put them now 4 games back and third in the standings. The Yankees played a 4 game set with the Rangers, splitting that series which put them 6.5 games back and fourth in the series. The Blue Jays got swept in a 3 game series with the Dodgers, which strengthens their strangle hold on last place in the division 14 games back.

So what is left?

The Blue Jays have 4 games against the Astros. The Rays play 3 games at the Yankees.

That leaves the 3 game set with the Orioles at Camden Yards for the Red Sox, then a trip back home to catch up with the remaining game in the series with the Rays.

Back in April the Red Sox lost 2 out of 3 games against the Orioles at Fenway and in June they dropped 3 out of 4 at Camden Yards. This means they are going to have to work hard to turn the tide to hold off both the Rays and the Orioles. Assuming the Red Sox take 2 of 3 from the Orioles and the Rays only take 2 of 3 from the Yankees, then the top 3 in the division could look like this:

  • -         Red Sox
  • 0.5     Rays
  • 6.0     Orioles
On the other hand, if history holds true for this year, then the Orioles take 2 of 3 from the Red Sox. The Yankees this year have lost 2 of 3, won 2 of 3, and split 2 of 4 with the Rays. It is not unexpected for them to pull 2 out of 3 in their coming series against the Rays, then the top 3 in the division could look like this:

  • -         Red Sox
  • 2.0     Orioles
  • 2.5     Rays
When looking at these kinds of scenarios, the most fun can be had by looking at what the best outcome could be for the Red Sox. They have to sweep the Orioles and the Yankees have to sweep the Rays, then the top 4 in the division could look like this:

  • -         Red Sox
  • 3.5     Rays
  • 6.5     Yankees
  • 7.0     Orioles
What will be the story on Monday when the Red Sox meet the Rays for the make up game?

Will the Red Sox be fighting for first place in the division, or will the Rays have taken it over and leave the Red Sox to fight for second place with the Orioles?

Post a comment or via twitter @ericschabell with your thoughts.

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