Bryce Harper Is More Hyped, but Would You Rather Have Will Middlebrooks?

By now, most baseball fans have heard of uber prospect, teen sensation Bryce Harper. The 19 year old has played in 35 games for the Nationals this season, and has yet to disappoint. He has hit 5 home runs, knocked in 14, and has hit .276. Harper's hustle is evident as he has scored 23 runs and stolen 3 bases. He has also successfully stolen home, but has occasionally been thrown out trying to stretch an extra base; he says he models his game after Pete Rose and it has shown.

The Nats won't be the only team playing at Fenway this weekend that have an impacting rookie in their lineup. Will Middlebrooks has been a spark plug for the Sox this season, hitting as soon as he came up in place for Youkilis. Middlebrooks was certainly not the top prospect that Harper was, but he has been a much better hitter this year. In 28 games with the Sox, Middlebrooks has 6 homeruns, 14 runs, 22 RBI, and a .312 average.

Unlike Harper, Middlebrooks was killing the ball in AAA before getting called up. He had 9 home runs and a .333 AVG in only 24 games, where Harper only had 1 home run and a .250 AVG in 20 games. Even the stubbornest Sox fan wouldn't argue that Middlebrooks will have a better career for Harper, but he certainly has been better this season.

Unfortunately, there seem to be smoke and mirrors surrounding the numbers that Middlebrooks has put up, and he may be in for a big reality check in the coming months. For starters, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is an unsustainable .378, suggesting that he is getting lucky with number of hits that are falling in play. Middlebrooks' career minor league BABIP was .351, which is higher than expected for a player who does not have blazing speed up the first base line. Players who can spread the ball to all fields such as Will are able to maintain high BABIPs, but a .351 BABIP is very rare in the majors because the pitching and fielding is better (only 26 players have had a career BABIP of over .350, all of them speedsters). His average will most likely fall as his BABIP comes down to a more reasonable number, but that is not the main concern.

Middlebrooks is striking out in 25.4% of his plate appearances, 40th out of 281 players with at least 100 plate appearances. Of the 40 players that are just below him in K%, only one is within 20 batting average points to Middlebrooks'. His high strikeout rate is poorly complimented by his low 4.4% walk rate, 34th lowest. This 0.17 BB/K rate is very troublesome compared to the league's average of 0.42. The Sox should not count on Middlebrook's average to be anywhere near .300 if he cannot increase his walks and decrease his strikeouts.

On the flip side, Harper's BABIP is .305, which actually may be low for a player like himself that has great bat control and is one of the fastest to first base. His BB/K rate is 0.68, quite impressive when you consider his young age.

It has been fun to see Will Middlebrooks' success from the moment he was called up to the majors. He has been the better player than Bryce Harper this season - in both the minors and the majors - and he will probably have a bigger impact in this weekend's series as Harper might be limited with a sore back. However, any fan would be crazy to rather have Middlebrooks over Harper for the length of their respective careers.