Season Preview Part IV: The X Factor

Unfortunately, it's not Christina. The X Factor is Bobby Valentine.

Parts I to III were named after Earl Weaver's famous formula for success: "Pitching, defense, and three-run homers." Unstated in the Weaver version was his -- um - confidence in his own competence. With Bobby Valentine, we don't know yet.

Here's my take on Valentine so far: he talks too much. That's understandable in its way, because he's made his living with his mouth for years. (Hey, like Christina! OK I won't do that again.) It's also understandable because he knew he was coming into a media-soaked market where his every word would be dutifully recorded and scrutinized. Wise enough to know he can't play the Bill Belichick role, he talked. And talked.

Which is fine, but a tongue so finely stretched will eventually be able to reach the feet.

We could argue endlessly that the players needed an anti-Francona, an asskicker. There's always sympathy for that view here in frugal New England, where we paradoxically pay the highest prices in the game and fill the damn park every day. We resent that and vent on the radio.

But stepping back from that for a moment, I say the players need an advocate. The manager has to have their backs. They are, in general, more emotional, less media-savvy, and already getting it from the fans. My hope is that Valentine will find a balance where he can deflect some of the press attention away from his players, especially when they're struggling, which they inevitably will at times.

Despite a few rumbles, for now I'm going to give Bobby V the benefit of the doubt. The man is clearly smart. I am sure his ego can get ahead of him at times (hell, anyone's can), but he thinks about stuff like this. I think he'll have the presence of mind to anticipate problems and give the players what they need. He won't allow himself to lose the clubhouse.

Weaver himself pegged the manager's impact at six or seven games per season, but I'll wager that the low side is lower than the high side is high. In short, a manager can lose more games than he can win. In a race as tight as the AL East, six or seven games could be a huge difference.